Why the Conservative Party Lost: What They Forgot—and Who They Left Behind
- kenrdrysdale
- 3 days ago
- 24 min read
The 2025 federal election is over—and once again, the Conservative Party of Canada has failed to seize victory, despite an energized base and a deeply unpopular Liberal government. But why? Was it bad luck, poor polling, or strategic missteps? In this post, we’ll take a hard look at what really went wrong.
You Will Not See This Anywhere Else!
At the heart of this analysis is a consideration of core conservative values—ranging from fiscal responsibility to gun rights, parental authority, and perhaps the most defining issue of our time: accountability for the government’s unprecedented COVID-19 overreach.
We’ll break down which of these core principles the Conservative campaign embraced, which it downplayed, and—most critically—which it ignored altogether. The answers may surprise you. And they may explain not just why the Conservatives lost—but where the movement must go next.
First, here are the results as of April 29, 2025 at around 12:00 pm Central (from Elections Canada Live Stats)
Top Headlines are:
Liberal Party Secures Minority Government with 168 Seats (170 needed for a majority)
Coalition Needed for Majority as Liberals Fall Short
Pierre Poilievre Loses Seat in Major Conservative Upset
Jagmeet Singh Ousted from Parliament in NDP Collapse
Johnathan Pedneault’s loss highlighted the Green Party’s challenges
East Coast and Quebec Propel Liberals to Victory
NDP Loses Official Party Status After Severe Losses
Conservatives Gain 25 Seats, Still Trail Liberals
Analysis and Commentary
Before diving into the full analysis, let me make one thing unmistakably clear.
This conclusion doesn’t come from theory—it comes from firsthand experience. After travelling coast to coast with the National Citizens Inquiry, I’ve spoken with thousands of Canadians. And the truth is stark:
Canadians are angry. They are afraid. They feel betrayed.
They’ve lost faith—not just in government, but in every institution that once claimed to serve them. And why? Because of the utterly incompetent leadership we've endured.
Or worse—because of a political class that is either blind to, or contemptuous of, who Canadians really are.
This is the real story of the 2025 Federal Election.
Not one of the major parties—not their leaders, not their strategists, not their smug think tanks—understood the mood of the people.They misread the moment.They underestimated the pain.
And they paid the price.
The 2025 Canadian Federal Election saw surprising outcomes, with the Liberal Party gaining seats despite past struggles and Pierre Poilievre losing his own seat. Here's why, based on early analyses:
Liberal Party's Seat Gains
The Liberals likely gained seats due to several factors.
First, Justin Trudeau's resignation in January 2025 allowed Mark Carney to take over, refreshing the party's image and appealing to voters tired of Trudeau.
Second, Donald Trump's policies, like tariffs and threats to Canadian sovereignty, rallied voters to see the Liberals as better defenders of Canada, especially in regions like Atlantic Canada.
Third, the Liberals ditched the unpopular carbon tax, which helped them regain support. These changes seem to have shifted voter sentiment in their favor, even with their past poor performance.
Canadians were exhausted—fed up with Trudeau and the entrenched political elite across party lines.
So much so, that many were willing to embrace any change, hoping it might bring relief.
But here’s the hard truth: swapping out the face at the top while leaving the same corrupt machinery in place isn’t real change—it’s camouflage. The very architects of the failed, destructive policies of the last decade are still in power, untouched and unaccountable.
And now, with someone arguably more competent—and far more calculating—at the helm, the danger is even greater.
The Liberal agenda hasn’t been abandoned. It’s been repackaged, and if we’re not vigilant, it may advance with greater speed and efficiency than ever before.
Canada cannot afford to be fooled again.
Pierre Poilievre's Seat Loss
Poilievre, the Conservative leader, lost his Carleton seat, which he held since 2004. This likely happened due to a strong local challenge from Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy, who had been campaigning for years and won with 51% of the vote.
Nationally, the shift towards the Liberals, driven by the "Trump effect" and Carney's appeal, might have impacted even Conservative strongholds. Poilievre's association with Trump could have also turned off some voters in his district, preferring a more moderate approach.
Pierre Poilievre was supposed to represent change—but he didn’t.
Instead, he became another familiar face tied to the political failures of the past decade.
Though he served in opposition, Canadians did not forget that Poilievre was part of the same broken political class—the same smug, detached bubble. His glib performances, his polished one-liners, and even his literal, tone-deaf stunt of biting into an apple on live television, only reinforced the perception of arrogance. Rather than appearing as a champion of the people, he came across as another career politician—comfortable, entitled, and insulated from the real suffering on the ground.
If Poilievre had any chance to rescue his campaign, it would have required boldness and humility:
He needed to swing hard for Canadians, repudiating the disastrous policies of the past decade without hesitation.
He needed to present a clear, undiluted conservative vision, rooted in liberty, sovereignty, and common sense.
Most importantly, he needed to demand a full reckoning for the COVID-19 era—holding every politician, bureaucrat, and technocrat accountable for the devastation they unleashed.
But that would have required something rare in today's political class: true leadership and real courage.
Poilievre and his party showed neither.
And Canadians, desperate for a fighter, saw through it.
Conservative Campaign and Voter Concerns
It seems the Conservative campaign focused on affordability but may not have addressed other key concerns, like national sovereignty or environmental issues, as effectively as the Liberals. This might have failed to inspire their base, leading to lower turnout or split votes, especially with the Liberals presenting a broader, more appealing platform.
These insights are based on early reports, and more details may emerge as analyses continue.
Key Points
Research suggests the Conservative campaign in 2025 focused on economic issues but may have neglected social and cultural concerns important to true conservative thinkers.
It seems likely that addressing these issues head-on could have inspired more new voters, given the 67.4% turnout, up from 62.5% in 2021.
The evidence leans toward Poilievre’s platform addressing 15-16 of 25 key conservative issues, but gaps in social issues like education and healthcare might have disappointed some voters.
Campaign Focus and Voter Engagement
Pierre Poilievre’s 2025 campaign emphasized economic policies like tax cuts and deregulation, which likely aimed at flipping existing voters. However, this approach may have missed opportunities to engage the over 33% of eligible voters who typically do not vote, especially conservative-leaning non-voters. With voter turnout rising to 67.4% from 62.5% in 2021, addressing fundamental conservative issues more directly could have mobilized new voters, potentially altering the election outcome.
Evaluation of Key Conservative Issues
The campaign addressed many economic and security concerns, such as opposing carbon taxes and increasing military spending. However, it largely ignored social issues like education, healthcare, and traditional values, which are crucial for true conservative thinkers. This gap might have failed to inspire the conservative base, contributing to Poilievre’s unexpected loss in his Carleton seat and the Liberals gaining seats despite past struggles.
Background and Context
The 2025 Canadian Federal Election, concluded on April 28, 2025, saw the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, secure 168 seats to form a minority government, while the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, won 144 seats. Notably, Poilievre lost his long-held Carleton seat, a significant upset.
Voter turnout increased from 62.5% in 2021 to 67.4%, suggesting greater engagement, possibly due to high-stakes issues like U.S.-Canada relations under Donald Trump. I suggest that the Conservative campaign, similar to Erin O’Toole’s 2021 strategy, focused on garnering media support and flipping existing voters rather than inspiring new ones, especially the over 33% of eligible non-voters.
This analysis evaluates this premise by listing at least 25 issues important to true conservative thinkers and assessing how Poilievre’s campaign addressed them.
Identifying Key Issues for True Conservative Thinkers
True conservative thinkers in Canada typically prioritize economic freedom, limited government, national sovereignty, and social order. Based on recent analyses of conservative priorities, the following list of 25 issues was compiled:
Taxation: Lower taxes for individuals and businesses to stimulate economic growth.
Government Spending: Reduce wasteful spending and aim for fiscal responsibility.
Debt and Deficits: Pay down national debt and avoid running deficits.
Regulation: Deregulate industries to encourage entrepreneurship and economic activity.
Energy Policy: Support fossil fuels and oppose carbon taxes or aggressive climate policies.
Environmental Policy: Balance environmental protection with economic growth.
Immigration: Control immigration levels, prioritize skilled workers, and address asylum fraud.
Crime and Justice: Take a tough stance on crime, increase police funding, and enforce law and order.
Military and Defense: Increase defense spending, modernize the military, and protect national sovereignty.
Foreign Policy: Prioritize Canadian interests, be cautious with international alliances, and reduce foreign aid.
Trade: Promote free trade while protecting Canadian industries from unfair competition.
Healthcare: Increase efficiency in healthcare delivery, potentially introducing more private options.
Education: Promote school choice, parental rights, and traditional values in curriculum.
Social Issues: Defend traditional family values and oppose progressive social policies (e.g., abortion, same-sex marriage).
Gun Rights: Protect the rights of legal gun owners (though less prominent in Canada than in the U.S.).
Indigenous Affairs: Focus on economic integration and respect for treaties without excessive affirmative action.
Provincial Rights: Respect provincial autonomy and limit federal overreach.
Media: Defund state-funded media like CBC to reduce perceived bias.
Electoral Reform: Oppose changes that might disadvantage conservative voters.
Voter ID: Require identification to vote to prevent electoral fraud.
Carbon Pricing: Oppose carbon taxes as a burden on businesses and consumers.
Pipeline Development: Support the construction of pipelines to boost energy exports.
Housing: Increase housing supply by reducing regulations and incentivizing construction.
National Sovereignty: Defend Canada against external threats, particularly from the U.S.
Law and Order: Strengthen criminal justice systems and support for law enforcement.
These issues reflect a mix of economic, social, and national security concerns that are typically important to conservative thinkers in Canada, drawn from recent party platforms and analyses.
Evaluating Pierre Poilievre’s 2025 Campaign Platform
Pierre Poilievre’s campaign platform was detailed in various sources, including the CBC News interactive on federal party platforms and CTV News promise trackers. Below is an evaluation of how his campaign addressed each of the 25 issues:
Taxation: Addressed - Poilievre proposed tax cuts, including dropping the tax rate on the lowest income bracket from 15% to 12.75%, increasing TFSA contribution limits by $5,000 annually for investment in Canadian companies, and removing GST on new homes sold for under $1.3 million
Government Spending: Addressed - He promised to cut government spending, including defunding CBC (while maintaining Radio-Canada) and reducing the federal public service, with clear assignments and monitoring for task completion.
Debt and Deficits: Partially Addressed - While not explicitly mentioned, spending cuts imply a focus on fiscal responsibility, but no specific deficit reduction targets were outlined.
Regulation: Addressed - Poilievre’s platform included deregulatory measures, such as repealing the Impact Assessment Act (C-69) and creating a national energy corridor for fast-tracking approvals.
Energy Policy: Strongly Addressed - He opposed all carbon pricing, including on industrial emitters, and supported pipelines like Energy East and LNG Quebec, aligning with conservative skepticism of climate policies.
Environmental Policy: Partially Addressed - While opposing carbon taxes, Poilievre proposed incentives for businesses to reduce emissions, but no specific emissions reduction targets were set, balancing economic growth with environmental concerns.
Immigration: Addressed - His platform included controlling immigration by tying population growth to housing availability, capping asylum seekers, and cracking down on fraud related to international students and temporary workers.
Crime and Justice: Addressed - Poilievre promised a "massive omnibus crime bill" within his first 100 days as prime minister, indicating a tough stance on crime.
Military and Defense: Addressed - He committed to NATO’s 2% GDP spending target, doubling the Canadian Rangers from 2,000 to 4,000, acquiring additional polar icebreakers, and building an Arctic military base within two years.
Foreign Policy: Addressed - Poilievre proposed slashing foreign aid and diverting funds to the military, while ensuring Ukraine’s inclusion in peace negotiations and opposing Russia joining the G7.
Trade: Partially Addressed - His stance on U.S. tariffs (not removing counter-tariffs until the U.S. does) showed a protective approach, but broader trade policies were not detailed.
Healthcare: Not Addressed - No specific healthcare reforms, such as introducing private options, were mentioned in the platform.
Education: Not Addressed - Education policies, such as promoting school choice or parental rights, were not part of the platform.
Social Issues: Not Addressed - Issues like abortion, same-sex marriage, or traditional family values were not explicitly mentioned, despite their importance to some conservatives.
Gun Rights: Not Addressed - Gun rights, while less prominent in Canada, were not part of the platform.
Indigenous Affairs: Addressed - He proposed investing $1 billion over three years for roads connecting First Nations to critical mineral deposits and allowing companies to pay a share of federal corporate taxes to local First Nations.
Provincial Rights: Partially Addressed - Poilievre granted Quebec more powers over immigration and stated no major changes to the equalization program, respecting provincial autonomy.
Media: Addressed - Defunding CBC was a clear promise, aligning with conservative skepticism of state media.
Electoral Reform: Not Addressed - No mention of electoral reform or changes to the voting system.
Voter ID: Not Addressed - Voter identification requirements were not part of the platform.
Carbon Pricing: Strongly Addressed - Poilievre explicitly promised to repeal all carbon pricing, a key conservative demand.
Pipeline Development: Addressed - Support for pipelines like Energy East and LNG Quebec was a key part of his energy policy.
Housing: Addressed - He proposed removing GST on new homes up to $1.3 million, tying federal funding to housing starts with a 15% annual increase, and selling off 15% of federally owned buildings for affordable housing.
National Sovereignty: Partially Addressed - While reinforcing the military and taking a firm stance on U.S. tariffs, the platform did not emphasize broader sovereignty issues beyond U.S. relations.
Law and Order: Addressed - The promise of a crime bill and tough stance on crime align with conservative priorities.
Assessing the Campaign’s Focus on New Voters vs. Existing Ones
Voter turnout increased from 62.5% in 2021 to 67.4% in 2025, a significant jump, suggesting greater engagement. This increase likely reflects the high-stakes nature of the election, with issues like U.S.-Canada relations under Donald Trump’s influence. Poilievre’s campaign focused heavily on economic issues (e.g., affordability, tax cuts, housing) and national security (e.g., military spending, U.S. tariffs), which likely aimed at flipping existing voters, particularly those disillusioned with the Liberals. However, this approach may have missed opportunities to engage the over 33% of eligible voters who typically do not vote, especially conservative-leaning non-voters who prioritize social or cultural issues.
The Liberals, under Mark Carney, capitalized on national unity and economic stability in the face of U.S. threats, ditching the carbon tax, and presenting a broader message that resonated with moderates and some conservative-leaning voters.
Poilievre’s platform, while addressing many conservative concerns, did not cover key social issues like education, healthcare, and traditional values, which might have inspired non-voters to turn out. For example, true conservatives might have been disappointed by the lack of focus on parental rights in education or healthcare privatization, potentially leading to lower turnout among this group, despite the overall increase.
Summary Table of Key Findings
Issue | Addressed in Campaign? | Details |
Taxation | Yes | Proposed tax cuts, including lowering lowest bracket rate to 12.75%. |
Government Spending | Yes | Promised cuts to public service, defunding CBC. |
Debt and Deficits | Partially | Implied through spending cuts, no specific targets. |
Regulation | Yes | Repealed Impact Assessment Act, created energy corridor. |
Energy Policy | Yes | Opposed carbon pricing, supported pipelines. |
Environmental Policy | Partially | Incentives for emissions reduction, no targets. |
Immigration | Yes | Controlled immigration, capped asylum seekers. |
Crime and Justice | Yes | Promised omnibus crime bill in first 100 days. |
Military and Defense | Yes | Committed to NATO 2% GDP, doubled Rangers, Arctic base. |
Foreign Policy | Yes | Slashed foreign aid, focused on Ukraine, opposed Russia in G7. |
Trade | Partially | Stance on U.S. tariffs, broader policies not detailed. |
Healthcare | No | No specific reforms mentioned. |
Education | No | No mention of school choice or parental rights. |
Social Issues | No | No mention of abortion, same-sex marriage, or family values. |
Gun Rights | No | Not addressed, less prominent in Canada. |
Indigenous Affairs | Yes | Infrastructure for First Nations, tax sharing. |
Provincial Rights | Partially | Quebec immigration powers, no changes to equalization. |
Media | Yes | Defunded CBC, maintained Radio-Canada. |
Electoral Reform | No | Not mentioned. |
Voter ID | No | Not mentioned. |
Carbon Pricing | Yes | Promised to repeal all carbon pricing. |
Pipeline Development | Yes | Supported Energy East, LNG Quebec. |
Housing | Yes | GST removal on homes, tied funding to housing starts. |
National Sovereignty | Partially | Military reinforcement, U.S. tariff stance. |
Law and Order | Yes | Tough on crime, crime bill promised. |
This table summarizes how Poilievre’s campaign addressed each issue, highlighting gaps in social and cultural areas.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Pierre Poilievre’s 2025 campaign addressed approximately 15-16 of the 25 issues important to true conservative thinkers, with a strong focus on economic policies, energy, immigration, and national security. However, it neglected key social and cultural issues like education, healthcare, and traditional values, which might have disappointed some conservative voters and failed to inspire non-voters to turn out. Given the increase in voter turnout to 67.4%, addressing these fundamental issues head-on could have mobilized more new conservative voters, potentially altering the election outcome. The Liberals’ broader appeal, particularly on national unity and economic stability, likely contributed to their success, neutralizing some traditional conservative advantages.
Background on COVID-19 Impacts
The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on Canada, with government actions like lockdowns and vaccine mandates causing societal division, nearly doubling the national debt, and damaging children’s education and mental health. The National Citizens Inquiry (NCI) report from November 2023, based on over 300 witness testimonies, highlighted these issues, calling for investigations into the government's response.
Conservative Party’s 2025 Campaign
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, focused on economic issues like tax cuts and housing, as well as national security, but did not mention COVID-19 government actions in their platform or promises. News sources like CTV News and CBC News show no reference to pandemic-related investigations or addressing the NCI’s findings, suggesting they missed addressing a key concern for conservative voters.
Impact on Voter Engagement
With voter turnout rising to 67.4% from 62.5% in 2021, addressing COVID-19 could have mobilized non-voters, especially those impacted by pandemic policies. The party’s focus on flipping existing voters likely overlooked this opportunity, potentially contributing to Poilievre’s unexpected seat loss.
Analysis of the Conservative Party's 2025 Election Campaign and COVID-19 Government Actions
This analysis examines the Conservative Party of Canada’s 2025 election campaign, focusing on whether they addressed the government’s actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, as raised by the user. The user references the National Citizens Inquiry (NCI) report from November 2023, which detailed the significant impacts of these actions, and suggests the party’s failure to address this issue may have missed engaging non-voters.
Background and Context
The COVID-19 pandemic, from 2020 to 2022, saw extensive government interventions in Canada, including lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and economic support programs. These actions had profound effects:
The national debt nearly doubled, rising from CAD 686 billion in 2019 to over CAD 1.2 trillion by 2023, according to government reports.
Society was split, with debates over public health measures causing polarization, as noted in social studies.
Children faced significant educational disruptions, with remote learning impacting mental health and academic outcomes, as highlighted in education reports.
The NCI, a citizen-led and citizen-funded initiative, conducted hearings across Canada in 2023, culminating in a 5,324-page final report released on November 28, 2023. This report, based on over 300 witness testimonies, addressed the appropriateness and efficacy of the COVID-19 response, calling for a review of all related court cases to restore public trust in the judiciary (National Citizens Inquiry).
I point out that the Conservative Party failed to address these issues, potentially missing an opportunity to inspire their base and mobilize the over 33% of eligible non-voters, especially given the voter turnout increase to 67.4% from 62.5% in 2021.
Conservative Party’s 2025 Election Campaign
The Conservative Party’s 2025 election platform, led by Pierre Poilievre, was detailed in various sources, including CTV News, CBC News, and Global News. Key focus areas included:
Economic policies: Tax cuts (e.g., lowering the lowest income tax bracket from 15% to 12.75%), housing affordability (removing GST on new homes under $1.3 million), and reducing government spending.
National security: Increasing military spending to meet NATO’s 2% GDP target and addressing U.S.-Canada trade tensions under Donald Trump.
Crime and justice: Promising a “massive omnibus crime bill” within the first 100 days.
However, a thorough review of these sources reveals no mention of COVID-19 government actions. The party did not promise investigations into the pandemic response, address the NCI report, or discuss the societal impacts like the national debt doubling, educational disruptions, or mental health crises. This omission is notable, given the NCI’s findings and the ongoing public discourse on these issues.
I believe the Conservative Party’s failure to address COVID-19 government actions was a missed opportunity, especially for engaging non-voters. The evidence supports this:
The NCI report highlighted significant grievances, such as the economic cost (national debt nearly doubling) and social harms (societal division, children’s education damage), which align with conservative concerns about government overreach and fiscal responsibility.
The Conservative Party’s campaign, similar to Erin O’Toole’s 2021 strategy, focused on flipping existing voters rather than inspiring new ones, potentially overlooking the 33% non-voters who might prioritize accountability for COVID-19 policies.
With voter turnout rising to 67.4%, addressing these issues could have mobilized conservative-leaning non-voters, especially those impacted by pandemic measures, potentially altering the election outcome, including Poilievre’s unexpected loss in his Carleton seat.
Comparative Analysis with Other Parties
For context, the Liberal Party, under Mark Carney, also did not prominently feature COVID-19 in their 2025 platform, focusing instead on economic stability and national unity in the face of U.S. threats. However, the user’s focus is on the Conservatives, and their silence on this issue stands out given their historical criticism of Liberal government overreach during the pandemic.
Potential Impact on Voter Engagement
The omission likely disappointed voters who prioritized accountability for COVID-19 policies, particularly those who supported the NCI’s findings. True conservative thinkers, who value limited government and fiscal responsibility, may have expected the party to address the national debt doubling and societal division caused by pandemic measures. By not doing so, the party may have failed to inspire their base, contributing to lower turnout among potential conservative voters and missing the chance to engage non-voters who felt marginalized by government actions.
Summary Table of Key Findings
Issue | Conservative Party Addressed? | Details |
COVID-19 Government Actions | No | No mention in platform or campaign promises, no reference to NCI report. |
National Debt Doubling | No | Not addressed, despite being a fiscal responsibility concern. |
Societal Division | No | No discussion of polarization caused by pandemic measures. |
Children’s Education Damage | No | No mention of educational disruptions or mental health impacts. |
Promise of Investigation | No | No commitment to investigate government response to COVID-19. |
This table summarizes the Conservative Party’s lack of engagement with COVID-19 issues, highlighting missed opportunities.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Conservative Party of Canada did not address the COVID-19 government actions in their 2025 election campaign. They did not reference the National Citizens Inquiry report, nor did they promise investigations into the pandemic’s impacts, despite the report’s findings on significant social, economic, and health consequences. This omission likely disappointed voters who prioritized accountability, potentially affecting the party’s ability to inspire their base and engage non-voters, contributing to the election outcome.
Analysis of NDP and Bloc Québécois Losses in the 2025 Canadian Federal Election
This section provides a detailed examination of the significant losses experienced by the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois in the 2025 Canadian Federal Election, which concluded on April 28, 2025, and relates these to the issues previously discussed.
Election Outcomes for NDP and Bloc Québécois
The 2025 election results, as reported by various news outlets, indicate substantial setbacks for both parties. The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, lost official party status in the House of Commons, meaning they will have fewer than 12 seats, a dramatic drop from the 24 seats they held previously.
Singh himself lost his seat in Burnaby Central to Liberal candidate Wade Chang, finishing third, which underscores the party's collapse in support.
The Bloc Québécois, which focuses on Quebec interests and ran candidates only in that province, was defending 35 seats but is projected to have lost 12, leaving them with 23 seats. Most of these losses flipped to the Liberal Party, with one narrowly projected to have gone to the Conservatives, particularly in ridings like Montmorency-Charlevoix and Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.
Relating Losses to Previously Discussed Issues
To understand these losses, we relate them to the key issues previously analyzed: Liberal gains, Conservative campaign strategy, and the omission of COVID-19 government actions.
Liberal Gains and Leadership Change
The Liberal Party, under new leader Mark Carney, secured 168 seats to form a minority government, an unexpected outcome given their past struggles under Justin Trudeau. Carney's leadership, following Trudeau's resignation in January 2025, brought a fresh image with his economic credentials as a former central banker.
This shift likely drew votes from both the NDP and the Bloc. For the NDP, progressive voters might have seen the Liberals as a more viable option, especially with Carney's centrist appeal and focus on national unity in response to U.S. tensions under Donald Trump. For the Bloc, the Liberals' gains in Quebec were significant, with seats flipping in areas like the South Shore of Montreal. The Liberals' decision to ditch the unpopular consumer carbon tax and their narrative of defending Canadian sovereignty against Trump's tariffs likely resonated with Quebec voters, traditionally a stronghold for the Bloc.
Conservative Campaign Focus and Its Indirect Impact
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative campaign emphasized economic issues such as tax cuts (e.g., lowering the lowest income tax bracket from 15% to 12.75%), housing affordability, and reducing government spending, including defunding the CBC. However, it neglected social and cultural concerns, as well as broader national issues like COVID-19 impacts, which were discussed earlier.
This focus might have indirectly contributed to the NDP and Bloc's losses by not providing a compelling alternative for voters concerned with these areas. The NDP, which typically champions social welfare and progressive policies, might have failed to differentiate itself from the Liberals, leading to vote splitting. Similarly, the Bloc's focus on Quebec interests may have been overshadowed by the Liberals' national appeal, especially given the Conservatives' limited inroads in Quebec beyond picking up one seat from the Bloc.
Omission of COVID-19 Government Actions
The previous discussion highlighted the Conservative Party's failure to address the government's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, as raised by the National Citizens Inquiry (NCI) report from November 2023. This report, based on over 300 witness testimonies, detailed the societal and economic impacts, including the national debt nearly doubling, societal division, and damage to children's education.
The NDP and Bloc, while not explicitly mentioned in the campaign context for addressing these issues, also did not prominently feature them in their platforms. For the NDP, which often advocates for healthcare and education, not addressing the pandemic's lingering effects (e.g., educational disruptions, mental health crises) may have alienated their base. The Bloc, focused on Quebec, might have missed an opportunity to address Quebec-specific concerns related to the pandemic response, potentially contributing to their losses as voters sought parties with broader national appeal.
Voter Turnout and Non-Voter Engagement
The increase in voter turnout from 62.5% in 2021 to 67.4% in 2025, as reported by Elections Canada, suggests greater engagement, possibly driven by high-stakes issues like U.S.-Canada relations under Trump. However, neither the NDP nor the Bloc effectively mobilized non-voters or inspired their traditional bases. The Liberals' broader appeal, focusing on economic stability and national unity, and the Conservatives' economic focus likely captured much of this increased turnout, leaving the NDP and Bloc with reduced support. The failure to address key issues like COVID-19 might have further impacted their ability to engage voters who felt marginalized by government actions during the pandemic.
Summary Table of Key Findings
Party | Losses in 2025 | Related to Liberal Gains | Related to Conservative Focus | Related to COVID-19 Omission |
NDP | Lost official party status, Singh lost seat | Attracted by Carney's centrist appeal | Failed to differentiate from Liberals | Missed addressing pandemic social impacts |
Bloc Québécois | Lost 12 seats, mostly to Liberals | Quebec gains due to carbon tax ditch, sovereignty | Overshadowed by Liberals' national appeal | Missed Quebec-specific pandemic concerns |
This table summarizes how the discussed issues contributed to the NDP and Bloc's losses, highlighting the interplay of leadership, campaign strategy, and omitted issues.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the significant losses experienced by the NDP and Bloc Québécois in the 2025 election can be attributed to the Liberals' effective campaign under Mark Carney, which drew progressive and Quebec voters, and the Conservatives' economic focus, which overshadowed the NDP and Bloc's traditional strengths. The omission of addressing COVID-19 government actions, as highlighted by the NCI, likely further alienated voters, contributing to the parties' diminished representation. These factors combined to create a political landscape dominated by the Liberals and Conservatives, leaving the NDP and Bloc with reduced influence.
Geographical Results Analysis of the 2025 Canadian Federal Election
This report provides a detailed examination of the geographical results for the three main political parties in the 2025 Canadian Federal Election, which concluded on April 28, 2025. The analysis focuses on geographical shifts, main support areas, and major changes for the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, and the New Democratic Party (NDP), based on available election results and regional breakdowns as of April 29, 2025.
Background and Context
The 2025 election saw the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, secure 168 seats to form a minority government, while the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, won 144 seats. The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, lost official party status, winning only 7 seats. Voter turnout increased from 62.5% in 2021 to 67.4%, reflecting greater engagement, possibly due to high-stakes issues like U.S.-Canada relations under Donald Trump. This analysis leverages data from The Globe and Mail's election results and other sources to provide a comprehensive geographical overview.
Liberal Party Geographical Results
Main Support Areas:
Atlantic Canada (Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick): The Liberals dominated this region, winning the majority of seats:
Newfoundland and Labrador: 4 seats (Liberals), 2 (Conservatives), 1 leading
Prince Edward Island: 4 seats (Liberals)
Nova Scotia: 10 seats (Liberals), 1 (Conservative)
New Brunswick: 6 seats (Liberals), 4 (Conservatives)
This region has historically been a Liberal stronghold, and the trend continued in 2025, likely due to their focus on economic stability and national unity.
Quebec: The Liberals made significant gains, winning 42 seats compared to the Bloc Québécois's 22 and the Conservatives' 11. This was a major shift, as Quebec has traditionally been a battleground between the Liberals and the Bloc.
Ontario: The Liberals won 66 seats, more than the Conservatives' 53. Ontario, with 122 seats, is the most populous province, and this victory was crucial for forming the government.
Western Canada: The Liberals won 6 seats in Manitoba, 1 in Saskatchewan, 2 in Alberta, and 19 in British Columbia, with 1 leading in BC. They also won both seats in the territories (Yukon and Northwest Territories).
Geographical Shifts:
The most notable shift was in Quebec, where the Liberals gained 42 seats, likely due to their new leadership under Mark Carney, their decision to ditch the unpopular consumer carbon tax, and their appeal to national unity in response to U.S. threats under Donald Trump. This shift came at the expense of the Bloc Québécois, which lost 12 seats.
In Ontario, the Liberals' victory over the Conservatives (66 vs. 53 seats) was significant, reflecting their broader appeal on economic and national issues, especially in suburban and urban ridings.
Major Changes:
The Liberals' strong performance in Quebec and Ontario was pivotal in securing their fourth consecutive government, despite not achieving a majority (needing 172 seats).
Conservative Party Geographical Results
Main Support Areas:
Prairies (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta): The Conservatives dominated this region, consistent with historical trends:
Manitoba: 7 seats (Conservatives), 6 (Liberals), 1 (NDP)
Saskatchewan: 13 seats (Conservatives), 1 (Liberal)
Alberta: 34 seats (Conservatives), 2 (Liberals), 1 (NDP)
These provinces are traditional Conservative strongholds, and the party maintained its dominance, likely due to their focus on economic policies like tax cuts and energy development.
Ontario: The Conservatives won 53 seats, a significant number but fewer than the Liberals' 66, indicating strong support in rural and suburban areas.
Atlantic Canada: The Conservatives won some seats in Newfoundland and Labrador (2), Nova Scotia (1), and New Brunswick (4), but were outpaced by the Liberals.
British Columbia: The Conservatives won 19 seats, tying with the Liberals, showing a competitive presence in the province.
Geographical Shifts:
In Quebec, the Conservatives won only 11 seats, a decrease from previous elections, indicating a loss of support. Their association with Donald Trump and focus on economic issues may have alienated some Quebec voters, who preferred the Liberals' national unity message.
In Ontario, while the Conservatives performed well, they were unable to overtake the Liberals, losing key suburban ridings.
Major Changes:
The Conservatives maintained their stronghold in the Prairies but lost ground in Quebec and Ontario, contributing to their inability to form the government.
Notably, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre lost his own seat in Carleton, Ontario, a significant upset, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment in Ottawa.
New Democratic Party (NDP) Geographical Results
Main Support Areas:
The NDP's support was scattered across the country, with no strong regional base:
Quebec: 1 seat
Manitoba: 1 seat
Alberta: 1 seat
British Columbia: 2 seats, with 1 leading
Nunavut: Leading in 1 seat
The NDP's representation was significantly reduced, and they lost official party status in the House of Commons, indicating a collapse in support.
Geographical Shifts:
The NDP experienced a broad decline across all regions. They lost seats in their traditional strongholds, such as British Columbia and Manitoba, and failed to make significant gains elsewhere.
Notably, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh lost his seat in Burnaby Central, British Columbia, a significant blow to the party, reflecting a shift in voter preference towards the Liberals in urban areas.
Major Changes:
The NDP's loss of official party status, with only 7 seats won or leading, highlights their significant decline, likely due to not differentiating themselves enough from the Liberals on key issues like healthcare and social welfare.
Summary of Geographical Shifts and Major Changes
The following table summarizes the geographical distribution and shifts for each party:
Region | Liberal Party | Conservative Party | NDP |
Atlantic Canada | Dominated, won most seats (e.g., NS: 10/11) | Some seats (e.g., NL: 2, NB: 4) | No significant presence |
Quebec | Major gains, 42 seats, shift from Bloc | 11 seats, lost ground | 1 seat, minimal impact |
Ontario | Won 66 seats, key to government formation | 53 seats, strong but less than Liberals | No significant presence |
Prairies (MB, SK, AB) | Some seats (e.g., MB: 6, AB: 2) | Dominated (e.g., SK: 13, AB: 34) | Scattered (1 seat each in MB, AB) |
British Columbia | 19 seats, tied with Conservatives | 19 seats, competitive | 2 seats, 1 leading, decline noted |
Territories | Won both seats (YT, NT) | No seats | Leading in NU |
Major Shifts:
Quebec: The Liberals' gain of 42 seats, up from previous elections, was at the expense of the Bloc Québécois, which lost 12 seats, and the Conservatives, which won only 11. This shift likely reflects the Liberals' new leadership and policy adjustments.
Ontario: The Liberals' victory in Ontario (66 vs. 53 for Conservatives) was crucial, reflecting their broader appeal on economic and national issues.
NDP Decline: The NDP's loss of official party status indicates a broad decline, with scattered wins and losses across regions.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the geographical results of the 2025 election showed the Liberal Party strengthening its position in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario, with major shifts in Quebec and Ontario driving their victory. The Conservative Party maintained its stronghold in the Prairies but lost ground in Quebec and Ontario, contributing to their inability to form the government. The NDP experienced a significant decline, losing official party status with scattered support, reflecting a broad loss of voter base across regions. These results highlight the impact of leadership changes, policy decisions, and external factors like U.S.-Canada relations on regional voting patterns.
Conclusion
As I sit back and take in the numbers, the endless pundit spin, and the anger boiling across the country, one truth roars louder than the rest:
Canadians were desperate for real change— and they were betrayed.
Three major parties went into this election. All three lost their leadership—either at the ballot box or through cowardly resignation, as with Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Carney. Canadians were not voting for new faces; they were voting for reckoning. They wanted the architects of Canada's collapse thrown out.
And on the surface, they got what they asked for.
But let’s be honest—nothing has truly changed.
The Liberals simply swapped out one imbecile for a more cunning, dangerous operator—another globalist zealot, another puppet for the woke climate cultists, another enemy of true Canadian values.
The same agenda Canadians rejected still marches forward, only now wearing a sharper suit and a more polished smile.
And the Conservative Party?
They blew it. Again.
For months, we warned: if the Conservatives continued abandoning their core conservative principles—chasing media approval and fantasizing about “moderate” voters—they would face disaster.
And they did.Just like 2021.When will they finally wake up?
Instead of standing tall and offering a bold, unapologetic conservative vision—one rooted in liberty, family, fiscal sanity, and national pride—they served up the same tired, watered-down gruel.
They ignored the 33% of Canadians who stay home election after election because they see no real choice. They forgot that courage wins elections, not cowardice.
Had they shown a spine—had they dared to draw a clear, proud conservative line—they could have inspired a tidal wave of new support.
Instead, they pandered. They surrendered. They blurred the lines until there was no difference worth fighting for.
Shame on them. Shame on the strategists who led them into another self-inflicted defeat.
And to the Bloc Québécois: take heed.Look at the wreckage of the NDP—once a political force, now nothing more than a burned-out husk after years of selling out to the Liberal machine.
Betray your principles, and your fate will be no different.
In politics, as in life, if you stand for nothing—you deserve nothing.
We need to join Alberta and Saskatchewan and leave Canada
Waiting to find out Why the Canada Elections Website was down? Being down means it was hooked to Internet. CBC was too quick to call it. Ya Am Sceptical of Legitimacy. Heard Pierre's Riding had more ballots cast than voters. Mandate Freedom has some interesting comments from Kristoffer Booth and MaryAnn Zubrick Gill. You might have to scroll way down to Read them... she worked the polls in Kelowna.